US LNG Revenues from the EU Drop to Three-Year Low
In July 2024, U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union (EU) sharply declined, causing revenues to fall to their lowest point since November 2021, according to reports from RIA Novosti.
U.S. LNG revenues from the EU dropped to $791.4 million in July, the lowest since late 2021. For the first seven months of 2024, U.S. gas exports to Europe totaled $7.3 billion, nearly 30% less than the same period in 2023.
Meanwhile, the EU’s share of U.S. LNG exports fell to 44.1%, while exports to Asia surged by 50%, increasing the region’s share to 36%.
Additionally, in Q2 2024, the EU imported more gas from Russia than from the U.S., with Russia exporting 0.46 billion cubic meters more than the U.S. during the same period.
Global Wheat Prices Forecasted to Rise
Wheat prices are expected to increase in 2025 due to a decline in supply. The reduction in availability will be driven by smaller harvests not only in Russia but also in Europe, a major exporter. Currently, wheat prices are around $215 per ton, down from $258 in 2023 and nearly $100 higher the year before.
After hitting a low in March, wheat prices briefly rose due to May frosts but dropped again following Turkey’s wheat import ban.
In the 2023-2024 agricultural season, Russian exporters shipped a record 55.3 million tons of wheat, accounting for over a quarter of global exports. This year’s harvest, however, may fall below the forecasted 86 million tons, with new estimates lowering the figure to 82.2 million tons.
Global Stock Market Recap: Mexico Gains, Colombia and Russia Diverge
On Friday, September 14, 2024, global stock markets showed mixed results:
- Mexico: The S&P/BMV IPC index closed slightly higher, gaining 0.03%. The industrial, consumer goods, and services sectors were the key drivers of growth.
- Colombia: The COLCAP index fell by 0.65%, impacted by declines in the financial, public services, and COL Investment sectors.
- Russia: The MOEX index surged 2.56%, led by strong performance in the oil & gas, mining, and electricity sectors.
- United States: The Dow Jones rose by 0.72%, bolstered by gains in utilities, raw materials, and consumer services sectors.
- Canada: The S&P/TSX Composite added 0.40%, with notable growth in REITs, healthcare, and real estate sectors.
- Brazil: The Bovespa index climbed 0.64%, driven by strength in the real estate, raw materials, and consumer goods sectors.
Dollar Drops to Yearly Low Against Yen Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculations
On Friday, the U.S. dollar hit its lowest level this year against the Japanese yen as speculation grew over a potentially more aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, according to CNBC.
The USD/JPY pair dropped by over 0.8%, falling to 140.37, its lowest since December, and was last trading just below 141.00. The euro, British pound, and Swiss franc also strengthened against the dollar.
Economic data from the U.S. this week supported expectations of a standard 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. This was driven by a stronger-than-expected increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August.
However, reports from the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times suggested that a 50-basis-point cut is still possible, shifting market expectations. Former Federal Reserve official Bill Dudley also advocated for a larger cut, arguing that current borrowing costs exceed the neutral rate by 150-200 basis points.
Market analysts, like Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank, noted that these reports have led investors to reconsider their previous assumptions of a 25-basis-point cut.
Traders now assess the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut at 40%, up from 25% on Thursday and 15% on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD increased by 0.15% to $1.1095, while the GBP/USD climbed by 0.15% to 1.3146, hitting a one-week high. The Swiss franc, like the yen, rose 0.39% against the dollar due to its sensitivity to Fed policy expectations.
Investors are also keeping an eye on next Friday’s Bank of Japan policy decision, where rates are expected to remain steady at 0.25%.
Most Bitcoin on Exchanges from Short-Term Holders: Speculation Rises Amid Market Volatility
Over the past month, most of the Bitcoin sent to cryptocurrency exchanges has come from short-term holders. According to analytics platform CryptoCount, on September 12, addresses holding BTC for less than three months accounted for more than 92% of the total inflow of the flagship cryptocurrency. Over 83% of the coins came from wallets that had held Bitcoin for less than a week.
These figures indicate that speculative traders currently dominate the market, aiming to profit from Bitcoin’s short-term price fluctuations. This behavior is typical in a volatile market. When the leading cryptocurrency rises, short-term holders are the first to sell, contributing to significant price swings due to the large influx of funds.
At the same time, the inflow of Bitcoin from long-term holders—those holding the cryptocurrency for more than three months—has also increased. Their share rose from 0.55% on September 11 to 7.59% on September 12. This suggests that long-term investors are also beginning to lock in profits. Additionally, the rise in this metric reflects growing caution among market participants, who are now viewing current Bitcoin price levels as an opportunity to exit.
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