Final Trading Session Overview: Key Events and Expectations
Friends, welcome to the final trading session of the week! We’re back on the financial markets, discussing key fundamental events that influence the dynamics of financial assets. Well, it’s Friday, and we’re anticipating the report that could trigger heightened volatility for the U.S. dollar and guide the Fed’s final actions regarding the key interest rate for the September meeting.
Non-Farm Payroll Report: The Crucial Data Block
Today at 12:30 GMT, we’ll be analyzing the NFP—this macroeconomic data block includes unemployment levels, non-farm payroll job creation, and perhaps more crucially, wage growth trends. The latter affects consumer activity and, consequently, inflation.
European Data Releases: Germany and Eurozone GDP
Ahead of the non-farm payroll data, we’ll have a few European releases. At 6:00 GMT, we expect Germany’s industrial production figures, followed by the Eurozone Q2 GDP at 9:00 GMT.
Post-NFP Focus: Fed Officials’ Commentary
Afterward, post-NFP, I’d recommend focusing on Fed officials’ commentary, especially from Williams and Waller. Waller, known for his hawkish stance, could potentially signal a shift towards a more dovish outlook, which would support traders hoping for rate cuts.
Dollar Index Under Pressure: What’s Driving It?
The dollar index is at 101 points, slightly below, and there’s no mystery why the dollar remains under pressure. It’s moving according to statistics and the prospect of a significant policy shift. We’re gearing up for a rate cut, still speculating whether it will be 50 or 25 basis points in September.
ADP and JOLTS Reports: Signs of a Slowing Labor Market
Yesterday’s ADP report showed that the U.S. economy added only 99,000 new jobs last month, well below expectations, signaling a slowdown in the labor market. There were also weaker JOLTS job vacancy numbers, nearly 400,000 fewer than forecasted. This served as a prelude to the ADP miss and possibly weak NFP data today. Likely, unemployment will remain at 4.3%, and new jobs will stay below 150,000. This suggests that the Fed may need to focus on stabilizing the labor market rather than inflation.
Rate Cut Speculation: 50 or 25 Basis Points?
The probability of a 50 basis points rate cut is already at 43%, up from 28% earlier this week.
Gold and Bond Yields: Safe Haven Rally
Gold has climbed to $2,517 per ounce, supported by weakening U.S. bond yields, down to 3.71%, the lowest since May 2023. The S&P 500 index could also see gains, despite potential short-term sell-offs, driven by future rate cuts.
USD/JPY Weakness: Yen Strength and BoJ Hike Speculation
USD/JPY continues to fall, driven by a weak dollar and a strong yen, due to potential Bank of Japan rate hikes. Recent wage growth data in Japan supports inflationary pressures, hinting at further monetary tightening.
AUD/USD Decline: Weak Q2 GDP Impact
AUD/USD is at 0.673, weighed down by weak Q2 GDP data. The Australian economy is under pressure from high inflation, which may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates soon.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Climbing on Strong Economic Data
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are also climbing, with the euro at 1.1115 and the pound nearing 1.32, buoyed by strong economic data and wage growth, supporting inflation.
Oil Markets Update: Stability with a Bearish Outlook
Oil markets remain stable at $72.70 per barrel, with expectations to see $70 soon.
That’s all for today. Thanks for your attention, and have a great end to the week!
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